25-06-2025
Iran Vs Israel- America, Who Won! Begging at Iran's feet, why!
Assalamu Alaikum. I am Alam, joining you from Istanbul, Turkey.
The 12-day war between Iran and Israel has come to an end. Now, several questions have arisen. The first question is: who gained what from this war? Then, what will happen next? The following question is whether Israel will actually stop, and finally, what is the future of Iran? Today, we will try to find answers to these questions and also address many of your queries. We will review the events of these 12 days—what actually happened, who gained what, who lost, and the victories and defeats.
To everyone who has joined from wherever you are, and to those who have been with us from the beginning for these past 12 days—supporting, watching videos, joining the live sessions, and commenting—I warmly welcome and thank you all. When we discuss these topics, we do so for you and for ourselves, trying our best to share with you the information we know, based on our knowledge and intellect.
Of course, many assumptions may not be entirely accurate, and I believe that’s a good thing. It’s normal that not all assumptions turn out to be true. Among these assumptions, some do tend to match reality reasonably well. Now, this matching doesn’t come from mystical or hidden sources. For example, today, Trump is attending the NATO summit. When you understand how NATO summits work and what kinds of discussions take place there, you can form an idea about what topics might be addressed...
When such discussions take place, about 50-60% of those assumptions turn out to be accurate. Anyway, let’s return to the main topic we started with. There has been a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. This ceasefire was primarily achieved by Trump. If we want to describe Trump’s style of bringing about this ceasefire in one sentence, we could say that he is managing the world through Twitter.
If you read all the social media posts he made this morning and later on Twitter, it seems like he is not running a state through traditional diplomatic means but rather through Twitter. At one point, he said, “Israel, stop bombing. Bring all your planes back.” Then he warned, “If you don’t listen to me, be prepared.” Then he tweeted that Iran and Israel have accepted the ceasefire. Later, when both sides launched attacks, he said, “I see you both attacking; be warned.” All of this was done through his tweets.
In the end, he declared that both sides have agreed to the ceasefire and that it was a major achievement for him. He worked very hard to bring about this ceasefire. Indeed, it took a lot of effort because bringing a person like the Israeli Prime Minister, who is a very tough figure, to this point is no easy task. Similarly, Iran would not easily agree to a ceasefire. Despite many statements, Iran also agreed.
It can be said that the ceasefire was implemented within just a few hours, which is quite remarkable. The real question is: how and why did this happen? Why did both sides agree to the ceasefire? And what will happen to both sides after this?
From the beginning, Iran and Israel have been enemies. Trump said they have been at war and hostility for many years but they themselves don’t fully understand why. In this war, Iran has lost about 600 to 700 people and thousands more were injured. More than 20-25 top Iranian generals were killed, and about 15-20 Iranian scientists were assassinated by Israel. Israel has also bombed various areas in Tehran, Iran’s capital. On the other hand, Israel’s important sites have also been attacked.
Thousands of people have fled from Israel. They have escaped from their own country. An unstable situation was created in Israel. The idea that Israel was completely safe and untouchable, that no one could even look at it with hostility, is now over. In the end, both sides agreed to a ceasefire. Now the question is: under what conditions did they agree to the ceasefire? Those conditions have not yet been disclosed. Iran said it could discuss a ceasefire if Israel stopped attacking. Israel has stopped attacking, and Iran has also stopped attacking.
Trump says the ceasefire has happened. But what are the terms of the agreement? They have not come to light yet. What conditions were agreed upon? Trump repeatedly says that Iran will no longer be able to develop nuclear weapons. He claims, “We have ended that.” That might be part of the deal—that Iran will agree not to pursue nuclear weapons. Such a condition would have to be part of the agreement.
Right after that, Trump is saying, “China, come on, you can buy oil from Iran, no problem.” So far, there have been sanctions on Iran, which implies the sanctions might be lifted. I’m not sure if that will actually happen. Furthermore, over the past two years, the focus has been on a certain land and people—Palestine and the Gaza Strip. I don’t know if any discussion or terms related to that will be part of this ceasefire.
After this ceasefire, today in Tehran, Iran’s capital, a large victory celebration is happening at Esteghlal Square. Whose victory is this? What kind of victory? Victory over whom? Victory for what purpose?
What is this victory? Israel attacked, but it couldn’t remove me from power—that’s the victory. The challenge was that Israel thought, "You will be overthrown," but it couldn’t do so. “See, I have not been overthrown”—that is the victory. A dozen or two generals were killed, about a dozen or more nuclear scientists were assassinated, hundreds of people were killed, and many homes and buildings were destroyed. Mosad agents were spread across the country in such a way that this war more or less exposed them.
Hezbollah was in almost the same position against Israel as Iran’s security and intelligence system was during this time. After all this, what does it mean to celebrate this victory now? Their victory slogan is: “Israel will be destroyed,” “America will be destroyed,” and “We will not let Israel survive. We are the strong ones.”
Now if Israel is destroyed, and America is destroyed, why did Israel launch the attack in the first place? If Israel is destroyed, this would be the perfect moment to end the war between Israel, America, and Iran by destroying Israel. So, what is the real victory here?
From Iran’s perspective, I think their victory is that their religious leader, Khamenei, remains completely untouched. No one has even been able to harm a single hair on his head. That is their victory and nothing else. Because the core of the Islamic Republic of Iran—the entire system of governance—is the Supreme Religious Leader. If the entire nation’s people had to die to protect him, and he survives, that is the victory.
And this is why Iran is celebrating this victory, which is exactly what I have been saying from the beginning.
The core of the conflict between Iran and Israel is not Palestine—and it never will be. Palestine is not the central point of this fight. Also, Iran will not be alone in this fight. But this conflict is not going to a place where it will lead to complete destruction or annihilation. Iran has its traditions, heritage, and a strong historical foundation—it's using these as its guiding brain for strategy.
Now, after this ceasefire, what will Iran do? Will Iran become stronger again? Should it become stronger? Or will Iran continue with the weaknesses that have just been exposed?
What are the weaknesses of Iran that have become apparent?
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Iran’s air defense system is not strong enough.
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Iran’s intelligence agencies are significantly weak.
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Iran cannot adequately protect its own military commanders.
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It cannot ensure the safety of its scientists.
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It could not successfully eliminate the targets it aimed for.
Regarding its missile systems, Iran claims to have multiple layers and various types of missiles. After testing, Iran has come to understand which missiles have what level of accuracy and precision in targeting. However, as of now, no one really knows the exact coordinates or locations that the missiles were targeting, and how close those missiles actually landed to those targets.
This accuracy and precision are things Iran has now been able to evaluate and test, and it must work on improving these aspects.
The missile systems at the highest levels, which were the most active and most successful, are the ones that Iran needs to focus on strengthening and perfecting.
Iran may invest even more in these areas. Not only in ground-launched air defense systems but also in air-launched air defense systems. To do this, Iran will now look for new friends and allies. If the sanctions on Iran are lifted, we might even see Iran signing agreements with the U.S. regarding these defense capabilities. Iran will also work on improving the aircraft and helicopters it currently cannot operate due to restrictions.
So, the weaknesses Iran showed during this war send a message to the neighboring countries—especially those who have feared Iran greatly—that now we have a clearer understanding of Iran’s actual capabilities.
There’s also a message for Israel. Israel’s weaknesses have also been exposed during this conflict. Israel’s air defense system does not provide absolute, impenetrable security as many assume. If, for any reason, the U.S. stops backing Israel in the future, Israel as a state might not survive. Without American support, Israel would not be able to withstand even a limited attack from Iran for more than 12 days.
The same Israel that claimed it would eliminate Iran, change its regime, and destroy its nuclear program is now forced to agree to a ceasefire with Iran. The same Israel that vowed to kill Khamenei is now forced to negotiate a ceasefire with him.
Regarding Israel’s intelligence failure: Israel extensively used intelligence operations inside Iran, trying to create uprisings and anti-government protests, hoping to topple the regime. However, much of that intelligence was flawed or false. Some reports even claim that the head of Mossad was killed during the Iranian attacks, though it is unclear if those reports are true.
In any case, the conflict has revealed the vulnerabilities of both Israel and Iran to the world. Both sides will now need time to recover and overcome these weaknesses. On one side, Iran must...
Overcoming military weaknesses and intelligence failures, Iran will now have to address its economic vulnerabilities as well. Along with that, it will need to heavily invest in its fragile proxy organizations. If Iran can restore these to their former state, then it can regain strength. However, meanwhile, the question remains whether Israel can accept these ceasefires—the ceasefires with Lebanon, Gaza Strip, and now with Iran. Israel cannot simply sit still and accept this ceasefire. If Israel stays inactive, it will face decline.
There is a saying in my country: if you sit idle, your bones start to decay. Similarly, if Israel remains passive, its state will deteriorate. It must keep running, it must keep attacking here and there. That is why Israel will continue its attacks in Syria, Lebanon, and of course Palestine. It will keep striking. At various times, Israel, often in coordination with the U.S., will threaten Iran. In response, Iran will issue counter-threats. Israel will also attack the Houthis and look for new countries to strike.
Currently, Syria is a new battlefield for Israel. It will attack there, and also in different locations inside Iraq. Israel must continue these attacks. If it does not attack—that is, if it cannot feed on blood, if it cannot suck blood—it cannot survive. Those who live by blood must keep drinking blood. If Israel does not get that blood, it will not survive. Based on this ongoing cycle of attacks, Iran and Israel’s current governments will continue to confront each other. Israel cannot survive without these attacks; it must continue them.
Now, what did Trump want to achieve with this ceasefire? Trump wanted to get the Nobel Prize himself through this ceasefire. But who is really pulling the strings behind this ceasefire? I do not know for sure. However, two figures must be mentioned: the President of Russia and the King of Britain. Very likely, it is the King of Britain. Trump’s tweets alone would not have stopped Israel if Britain had not intervened. Likewise, the threats and advisories to stop Israel would have been ineffective if Russia had not stood on Iran’s side and indicated that if the conflict continued, Russia might support Iran with more weapons.
Iran’s Foreign Minister visited Russia’s President, and soon after, the entire Russian narrative—from media to government officials, ministers, and MPs—shifted dramatically within just two or three days. Russia’s influence was significant.
Britain’s role is also crucial. After this ceasefire, NATO’s chief praised Trump, and then Trump received a mobile message that reportedly leaked. The message said that Trump is the only U.S. president of his kind, a special person sent by God. He was thanked for securing such a major ceasefire and for establishing peace in the world. The message even hinted that he deserved a Nobel Prize.
It should be given. After saying many things, it is said that you will come to the NATO summit and be able to do many more things. And the biggest thing is that after making this ceasefire, you will have dinner with the King of Britain. That is the greatest honor or gift we can give you. Nothing bigger than this can be given. So, this whole issue—the war between Iran and Israel, the mediation by the U.S. and Britain, and along with that, mediation by some other countries—one very important country among them is Qatar.
Even after receiving a beating from Iran, Qatar says, “Okay brother, I will mediate.” It is like two boys fighting, and you, like an elder, try to stop them. They are hitting each other, but you get hit too, on your cheek or stomach. Still, you think, “Alright, let’s stop this.” That is Qatar’s position: even after being hit, it mediated to stop this war. Qatar negotiated with Trump, the U.S., Israel, and Iran to bring this war to a halt.
Now, after the ceasefire, you will see some countries getting more Western support. Why? Because Iran was almost alone in this war. The countries that might have supported Iran politically, diplomatically, or militarily did not provide any support during this war. Among those countries are Pakistan and Turkey. So, in the future, we may see better relations between these two countries and the West.
Another question from you is why no Muslim country stood with Iran in this war—or whether anyone did. No Muslim country would stand with Iran. This is well known, nothing new. There are many reasons why Muslim countries did not side with Iran—historical reasons, political reasons, and economic reasons.
For example, what is the problem between Saudi Arabia and Iran? There are many issues. Saudi Arabia’s backyard is Yemen. Yemen has been taken over by Iran—or rather, by Iran-backed groups. The war between Saudi Arabia and Iran in Yemen has been very intense. The war in Gaza? That’s part of the broader Saudi-Iran conflict. In Yemen, people have suffered so much that even cats ended up being eaten.
Then there’s the war in Syria, where control shifted between Iranian and Saudi-backed forces. Then the Iran-Saudi conflict in Lebanon. Then the Iran-UAE conflict in Israel/Palestine. Also, in Bahrain, there is a conflict between Bahrain’s government and Iran. Qatar’s relations with Iran are better—that’s why Qatar mediated even after being “kicked.” With Turkey, Iran’s relationship has always fluctuated between hostility and neutrality. Due to several reasons, including the PKK issue, Turkey has blocked Iran’s attempts to establish proxy groups there and cut off their influence.
Hezbollah, once a significant organization linked to Islamic rule aspirations in Turkey, was crushed. Iran supports the PKK, and Turkey supports opposition movements inside Iran. Turkey also supports Azerbaijan, which is Armenia’s enemy. Iran supports Armenia. So, during the Armenia-Azerbaijan war, Iran and Turkey were strongly opposed to each other. Turkey is a NATO member; Iran is NATO’s adversary. In Syria, Turkey has taken control of some areas from Iran.
Because of these events, Syria was taken, and due to these incidents, they do not consider each other friends—in fact, in times of crisis, they did not stand by each other. So the main point here is that you have to stand on your own strength. This is not just about Iran; it’s the same for Turkey as well. If Turkey faces any attack today from any country, none of the Arab countries will stand by Turkey. Iran will not stand, Arab countries will not stand, no one will stand. Who will stand? Pakistan might stand, Azerbaijan might stand, and Qatar might play its diplomatic roles.
A question arises that formally Iran has withdrawn from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Does this mean Iran will produce nuclear weapons? Look, this is a reaction—there was a vote against it in Iran’s parliament; it was a reaction. But implementing that action or making it effective is not the responsibility of Iran’s parliament alone. Then there is the president, Iran’s Supreme Leader, and the highest religious leader. There are three more levels of authority. So, considering all these aspects, Iran has done the most logical thing it could in this war. Logical.
What is the logical thing? Often people say it’s deliberate drama. Many say it’s a staged drama to show the people, “I will attack Qatar but no one will be harmed,” or “America will attack Iran’s port but no damage will happen there,” and what will actually happen is a heavy clash between Israel and Iran. Some say that Iran, Israel, and America are friends and that these conflicts are pre-planned and mutually agreed upon to be shown to the public. I do not see it that way. I have discussed this before many times that the real issue is what Iran prioritizes—what it wants to save and what it wants to advance in the future. What is Iran’s near-term goal? What is Iran’s future target?
I made two videos about Iran, probably last year, called Iran Decoding Part 1 and Iran Decoding Part 2. If you watch those videos, you will understand the reason behind Iran’s proxy organizations and how Iran conducts its foreign policy. After watching those videos, you will understand why Iran, despite taking a beating from the U.S. and Israel, is still making agreements with Israel.
The reason is Iran’s main concern is to preserve its existence—not just the existence of the Iranian state or its geographical map, but the survival of the Khamenei regime, the continuation of the Imamate, the preservation of the line of Imams. If you read the history of the Imamate—from Ali (may Allah be pleased with him) and the twelve Imams, to the occultation of Imam Mahdi, who has been in hiding for hundreds of years but can appear at any time to bring great change and protect the Imamate’s responsibility—then protecting the current Imams and continuing this chain of Imamate is Iran’s highest priority.
According to their belief, if 20 generals or even 100 generals are martyred, it is not a big loss compared to losing the Imamate lineage or its continuation. That is the greatest victory for them. Historically, the Shia-Sunni conflict stems from the Imamate lineage. The concept of power and governance in this region comes from that tradition.
From this perspective, many times the Imams have had to flee the region or relinquish political power due to strategy and weakness. When weak, they gave up state governance to focus solely on religious leadership (Imamate). Later, when they grew stronger, their influence even extended to Nigeria in Africa, and then came back to the Middle East. Therefore, preserving this lineage is crucial. If this weakens or falls...
Then again, they will have to go into occultation (self-concealment). For many years, they have to remain in that state, working accordingly until it is certain. So preserving this is above everything else. That’s why they are celebrating victory now. If you have any questions, I will answer them.
Russia’s Deputy Defense Adviser, Dmitry Medvedev, stated publicly that many countries are preparing to give Iran nuclear bombs, and Russia is believed to be one of those countries.
Regarding this news, America and Israel have been stunned, though honestly, they probably shouldn’t be surprised. Medvedev has made many such statements in the past. His statements carry weight, but many of them have also been repeated without real value—like repeatedly threatening to kill Zelensky, overthrow him, or launch missile strikes. These statements are often exaggerated.
Anyway, what has Turkey done? Erdogan secretly calls Israel “Abba” (father). Iran has openly fought with Israel, which is a very good point; it’s exactly what I was thinking. Erdogan doesn’t do this openly; he calls Israel “Abba” secretly. Sometimes he even does it live, repeatedly saying “Abba, Abba.” We watch those live videos. Because of this “Abba” calling, the Western world praises him affectionately. This is reality.
The bigger point is: if Israel had not directly attacked Iran—had not assassinated so many Iranian generals and scientists—Iran would have fired missiles at the Palestinians. But Iran has only fired missiles to defend itself. The rest is emotional talk with no real value.
Regarding Turkey and Israel, how far Turkey will go with Israel or not is something I have discussed in my videos continuously. This is nothing new; it’s just emotional posturing. Brother Sarar, my wife and I wait every day for you to go live, and we watch your live streams together.
There is a ceasefire between Iran and Israel now. So who else can Israel attack? Not Turkey. Since Iran still stands and has not fallen, if Iran had fallen, then Turkey might have been attacked. But Iran remains standing.
Given Iran’s position after the Iran-Israel conflict, who benefits? All countries in the region who don’t openly support Iran but dislike it also benefit. For example, Turkey benefits a lot. Turkey will now celebrate victory. Iran also celebrates victory.
How strong are Iran’s weapons now? We’ve learned quite a bit from Israel’s attacks about Iran’s open and covert capabilities. Many top Iranian generals have been assassinated. To produce just one general or military leader costs a country a lot of effort and resources, and similarly for soldiers.
Moreover, the IRGC—the Revolutionary Guard, which Iran has invested heavily in—has suffered significant losses. Recovering from this and involving itself in other countries’ internal affairs will take a lot of time. So, from this perspective, many countries are now somewhat relaxed.
Iran has been sized up reasonably; it has not fallen. If it had, Israel’s enemy would have turned on someone else. Since Iran is still alive, it will regain strength, and its enemies and proxies will continue to create trouble in neighboring countries. I am calm about this—not entirely enemy, nor a friend.
Iran has become somewhat weaker, which is also good. We understand the enemy’s position clearly. From this perspective, Iran’s situation is positive for Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the UAE, Israel, and America. What about the Gaza ceasefire? Israel killed many people in Gaza even a little while ago. Gaza is no longer a place for ceasefire negotiations. Gaza is now “out of sight, out of mind.” No one talks about Gaza anymore; it is not on the agenda. Many things will come next.
Israel continues to kill people as it wishes and has set a trap to do so. What kind of trap? A trap where they don’t even need to go house to house to kill people. I hesitate to give examples because they are painful, but for example, imagine luring chickens with food and then catching them easily. Israel now treats the Palestinians like starving chickens.
The U.S., Western countries, and the Muslim world all send some aid to Gaza. When Palestinians come to receive this aid, Israel shoots them like birds, without any hesitation or tension. This is what is happening.
Regarding Mossad’s chief, there have been rumors that after an attack on a Mossad headquarters or office by Iran, the Mossad chief has been killed. These are claims without confirmed evidence. No major media has confirmed this. Therefore, there isn’t much room for discussion on this topic yet.
We might observe over the next 10 to 15 days whether the Mossad chief appears publicly, makes any statements, or attends any meetings. If not, then this speculation might be true. Among current Muslim countries, which is the biggest superpower? Tell me, brother, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Turkey, or Iran? I don’t know. Honestly, I don’t see any country as a superpower yet. It depends on your perspective.
For me, there is no superpower yet. You, Sarar, you spend your life opposing Iran, Turkey is a lapdog for Israel—you write brilliant analyses with strange nicknames. How do you type these words? Send me your keyboard details! It’s normal to be anti-Iran. I’m not a fan of Iran either. And being a lapdog of Turkey is also not surprising, since you live in Turkey. What will happen if you don’t show some loyalty?
If you weren’t Israel’s lapdog, Facebook and other platforms would block me. That’s why every day I run extensive campaigns supporting Israel’s position. And you see, I’m not really an analyst; I just come online and rant. Some people like me for that.
Anyway, you’ve managed to promote yourself well with such sharp comments. If you have any friends near you, I urge you to invite this guy for tea one day and ask how he makes such comments. A poor man said “opponent discussion.” That’s what I call love from the poor people. Thank you, brother, even if you’re poor. If possible, I would love to come to your home for a meal one day.
Why doesn’t Iran take nuclear bombs from Russia? Or does Russia not want to give them? Will Iran take nuclear bombs from Russia?
Iran wants to control Makkah and Madinah, which Saudi Arabia currently controls. Saudi Arabia is establishing control over the entire Muslim world through these two holy cities. Without this, no one would respect or honor Salman in Saudi Arabia, and why would people even go to Saudi Arabia?
Saudi Arabia makes billions and billions of dollars from Makkah and Madinah alone, which is a huge matter. Everyone respects Saudi Arabia for this reason. Iran wants to control Makkah and Madinah, and through controlling these two places as well as Al-Quds (Jerusalem), it aims to establish a state or system of Imamat—spiritual and political authority—over the entire Muslim world.
To do this, Iran has to confront two major obstacles: Saudi Arabia and Israel. Nothing else. In my opinion, the Shia-Sunni issue was never really ideological. It only became so recently, when it was made into an ideological issue, which then led to fighting. Anyway, many of you have asked a lot of questions—thank you for your positive questions. Some say I only read negative or confusing questions, but I do read all kinds.
To everyone who posts positive comments, loving comments, supportive comments—you are the strength that allows us to keep doing this. So, thank you so much to all of you.
And even to those who leave very negative comments—thank you to them as well. Because even then, they are still viewers. They watch, and after watching, they leave a comment. Maybe they didn’t like it, so they cursed or left a harsh comment—that’s fine, no problem at all. May you all be well, stay healthy. Allah Hafiz (Goodbye).
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